Warning Signs in the Treasury Market

Treasury Market

The recent stock market sell-off has created a flight to safety as many investors rotated out of riskier securities into treasuries. This frequently happens when the market is spooked or has trouble making sense of what’s really transpiring. What’s concerning is that the current 10 year treasury is at an all-time low. The yield curve is also severely inverted as the 10 year treasury is 40 basis points below the 3 month treasury. These signals are not normal. Many attribute this to the China – US macro trade war.That well may be, but it could also reflect a loss of confidence in the economy or concern as to potential for deflation. Given the unrest in the markets, let’s hope things stabilize and the markets calm down soon.

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