Reading the Bond Yield Tea Leaves

10 Year Treassury

Post-election, the stock market has taken off and so have treasury yields. As of January 11, 2017, the 10-year treasury yield is up 54 basis points since October 31, 2016. The yield is now 2.37% vs. 1.83% as of October 31, 2016. This is a large move in a short amount of time. This adjustment likely reflects the market’s view of higher inflationary expectations due to the prospect of faster economic growth ahead. If the 10-year yield now stabilizes around the current level, we should be fine. If it continues this rapid increase, that may signal bear market conditions for bonds, which could portend problems for the rest of the economy. Noted bond guru Bill Gross sees 2.60% as the upper end of the range, above which we may have problems.

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