The Housing Market Index (HMI) is nearing a 12-year high, with March 2017’s index of 78. This index measures builder’s confidence in single family detached home sales over the next 6 months. The chart below compares the index for the month of march over a historical period including 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2016 and 2017. The current level of 78 represents a 27% increase over the index level of March 2016, and a 10% increase over February 2017’s index level of 71. Builders are often a leading indicator of cyclical upturn in confidence, as they operate on long cycle times and lay out large dollars. This is a bullish sign for the overall economy as construction has a multiplier effect and cascades into consumer spending.
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